CO129-559-1 Canton - Hankow Railways 15-1-1936 - 23-6-1936 — Page 46

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but no guarantee of accuracy can be given. Ex cathedra

statements have been made from time to time to the effect

that Canton will become the great outlet for the produce of all China south of the Yangtze. The Canton-Hankow Railway

Administration have expressed the opinion that the line will

attract the coal business and all other kinds of traffic

from the northern and central parts of the country to a more direct and therefore cheaper route to Canton and Hong

Kong and other points. I regret that I cannot subscribe to

these optimistic views. Traffic will only move by rail if it is able to bear the transportation costs involved. If

these costs exceed a certain limit, traffic will either

turn to other means of transportation or cease to move.

Water-borne rates are very moh less than rail-borne rates,

so that water transportation from Chuchow to Hankow and

from Hankow to Shanghai must always remain a powerful

competitor to the Railway. The latter will in my opinion

be used mainly for the transport of perishables, the

transport of valuable goods requiring maximum expedition,

those which command a reasonable price in relationship to

freight charges, those which are destined for shipment to

Manila and places west of Hong Kong, those which may be

distributed from either Canton or Hong Kong, and the trans-

port of goods of all classes from south of Hengehow.

Commodities not embraced in the above classification have a

far cheaper water-borne route via the Tung Ting Lake and

the Yangtze available for their movement. Hengehow, which

is midway between Canton and Hankow, may be considered the

economic divide from which most goods will flow either

north or south.

43. Bulk commodities such as coal, however, should

move south over the line provided the ton-mile rate is

sufficiently attractive.

A case in point is Leiyang coal